User blog comment:DancePowderer/The Smiling Man, Part 6/@comment-2226235-20150924235834

It makes sense that his loss would upset the balance of power. The World Government seemed pretty nervous after Crocodile was defeated and tried to cover up Moriah's defeat, so it makes sense that losing a Shichibukai who's even more influential than them would upset the balance of power on the government's side. He also had deals with enough different groups in the New World that his capture could tilt the balance of power in a different direction, so I think he was right about the consequences of the marines capturing him.